NFL Week 8 predictions
Well, last week was one of my worst prediction weeks ever. A number of the games that most people agreed would be close calls didn’t go my way and there were a number of upsets. But I have to stay with my formula; one week is a small sample and I have all of last season to prove that my formula works. So on to week 8.
Week 8 winners:
Baltimore
Carolina
Houston
NY Giants
New Orleans
Tennesee
Detroit
Buffalo
Cincinatti
San Francisco
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
San Diego
NFL Week 7 predictions
Using the same formula that I used to win approximately 50% of last years football pool weeks, here are my predictions for week 7 of the 2011 NFL season. I’ll put my record at the end of this season against any of the analysts on ESPN.
Winners:
Detroit
Tennessee
Miami
San Diego
Chicago
Washington
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Dallas
Green Bay
New Orleans
Baltimore
Cleveland
NFL teams are losing their discipline
Several things are occurring during this NFL season that make me believe that a lack of discipline is turning into badly played football games.
First off, anecdotally speaking, the number of penalties is astounding me. It seems in almost every game, one of the teams, has double-digit penalties. It’s not unusual to see a team with over 100 yards in penalty yards.
Then there’s the atrocious special teams play. I can’t remember a year in which more games have been decided by poor play on special teams. Not astounding returns so much as embarrassing, bone-headed, carelessness.
The game is turning into a personality based circus. I don’t remember many personalities on the great champions of yesteryear. Actually, there aren’t many personalities on today’s good teams either, except maybe the head coaches which is as it should be. No Randy Mosses, Terrell Owenses, Chad Ochocincos. All cancerous tumors that travel around making every one of the their teams’ games all about themselves. And their lack of discipline is infectious to teammates. Witness what’s happened in Minnesota after the Randy Moss carnival of idiocy. It’s not just off-field issues though; Coaches such as Chuck Noll and Bill walsh were well known for the exacting attention to detail they expected during practice. Don Shula’s teams were almost always the least penalized teams during his years as coach. It’s difficult to believe that this is a coincidence, and shows that coaches have a significant impact in on-field discipline of players.
Every year the best teams are not the “flashy” teams. They are the teams that are like efficient machines. They are so efficient in their execution as to be absolutely frustrating to their opponents. Because every player is drilled to respond a certain way in a certain situation, they minimize free-lance mistakes. Penalties, sacks allowed, turnovers, special teams. Want to find the measure of good coaching? Look for those four statistics in the box score and you’ll be able tell who won the game without looking at the score. Success in those areas is mostly determined by execution, not raw talent or speed. They are the result of a team mindset which the coach is primarily responsible for forming–or allowing.
I think of the great coaches–they were all Lords of Discipline. Lombardi, Noll, Shula, Ditka,Levy, Landry, Walsh. They required professionalism from their players. As Mike Ditka once said: “You get from people what you allow.” And certainly we see this on many teams today. The inmates are running the asylum.
There are still teams that show they have discipline. That machine-like quality that makes their opponents grind their teeth. I watched the Packers play last night. They did everything right, while the Vikings looked liked confused college players. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, too. In the age of NFL parity, coaches may, more than ever, be the key to NFL dynasties.
Intelligence Analysis, Or: How to win your office’s football pool.
Recently, I got talked into joining my unit’s football pool here in Afghanistan. Historically, I’ve always done pretty well in these things, so I figured I give it a shot. I knew I’d be going up against a bunch of smart people who also happened to like football. Combine Army-types with nerds and you get what we have here.
My first week, I joined the pool approximately 10 minutes before all picks were do–Sunday morning in US time. I had no chance to do any real analysis, but placed my picks quickly. I didn’t do any better than average. However, the next week, I had time to go through my usual checklist when making my picks. I won the prize hands down and hope to do so again this week. I also hope that no one in my unit reads this page; I don’t want to help people in denying me my weekly prize.
I apply some techniques in intelligence analysis when I make my football picks. Here’s things to consider and an ad hoc checklist that may help you pick up some beer money in your office pool.
- Mitigate the emotional pick: While discussing the week’s picks with a very intelligent intel analyst, I had to keep reminding him to avoid the emotional pick. He’s a Redskins fan, so of course he feels the urge to pick the Redskins every week. He also feels the need to pick against the Cowboys every week. Now in the instance of the Cowboys, it’s worked out well for him. However, emotion, in the long run, will severely hamper your chances of victory. Now I’m no stoic. Emotion has its place. When I arm-wrestle, I get fired up. but when I’m making my picks, I’m as cool as a cucumber. Don’t pick the team you like–pick the team that’s most likely to win. It’s not as easy as it sounds. It requires an extraordinary amount of introspection, a monitoring of your own intentions. But it’ll go a long way in helping you win.
- Stats don’t lie as much as politicians want us to believe. Barack Obama’s voting history while in the senate proved he was the most liberal person who voted. Yet, somehow the American people ignored this in their hope that Obama’s mere wish to do good would overcome his proven track record. But the trend continues. Statistics can deceive people. But they usually only deceive when other statistics are not known or are ignored. For instance, the San Diego Chargers are off to a bad start. Their win/loss record is very poor for a team that many predicted would go to the Super Bowl this year. However, a close look at their statistics shows something incredible: They are ranked #1 in defense and #1 in offense! Ok, so their special teams have been pretty awful. But a team who’s #1 in both defense and offense is unlikely to have to rely on their special teams to win over a 16 game season. I predict they’ll go on a winning streak soon. I picked the Chargers last week. Few others did. They won. Before my pick, I go through each team’s rankings running and passing, offence and defence. I compare each team’s strength to their opponents weaknesses and so on.
- Singular incidents mean little: They mean something–but not very much. We must look for trends when it comes to picking NFL winners. Personally I define a trend as 3 games for an individual player and 5 games for a team. By game 5, I have a much better idea of what a team’s capabilities are then after 2 games. Don’t pick a winner because of a spectacular performance the previous week and conversely, don’t pick a winner because their opponent didn’t perform well (uncharacteristically) last week.
- Don’t believe the hype. Watching highlights of a team’s big win can move our emotions. We may want pick a team to win because we keep seeing stories about them on ESPN, or we may vote against them because the media wants to talk about how poorly the coach and QB are getting along. This may matter–or it may not. What really tells us if a team is likely to win is the trending performance on a field, not the regularity of reporting on a team.
- Home Field is more often than not, the winning field. I don’t know the stats, but the home field advantage is a worth a few points, historically speaking. When in doubt, pick the home team.
- All things being equal, go with the team with the best QB. If you look at a game and can’t decide, after all the above considerations, who’s going to win, go with the team with the best QB. How you decide who’s best is up to you, but most of us know instinctively who the better QB is in a game. While generally unscientific, my reasoning is that since the QB handles the ball on nearly every down, he has a greater impact on the outcome than anyone else.
Unfortunately for me, no matter how I twist my methodology, the 49ers come out to be a mediocre team this year….
Vick vs Kolb
Philadelphia Eagle’s coach, Andy Reid, recently made the announcement that Michael Vick would be the starting quarterback for the Eagles for the remainder of the season. This comes after Kolb suffered a concussion in the season opener.
People are quick to point to Vick’s two performances this year as proof that he should be the guy. But wait. Two games? And he threw all of 16 passes last year after spending time in prison. Before that, Vick’s best season came in 2006 when he sported a very average passer rating of 75–the highest of his career. Someone like myself, who grew up reading statistical guru Bill James’ books on baseball probability knows that two games means nothing. We should go with Vick’s previous 5 years if we are to make an assessment of his possible future performance. In almost every year, Vick’s passer rating was very average–in the 70s, with a high of 75. To give him credit, his interception percentages in those years were quite good, with 3.7 being his worst year.
Ah, a Vick fan may point out, Vick’s the best running QB in NFL history. 4.3 speed from the QB position makes defenses quake in their boots.
While a QB who can run is undoubtedly an asset, let’s consider the ramifications. Generally speaking, QBs who can run tend to run more than those who can’t. Of course, they want to do what they’re good at. But, QBs who run are doing almost all of their running in passing situations, which means long yardage situations. Let’s say it’s 3rd and 10. The running QB drops back, and decides to take off. He makes it 8 yards. He now has an 8 yard rushing average–simply awesome when you consider the mid 4 yard averages of some very good running backs. But it’s still 4th down and time to punt. Play calling is contextual. Not all play calls have the same value under different conditions. Yards to go is just as important as matchups, maybe more so.
There are three types of running QBs: Those who prefer to run, those who hate running, and those who run when they have to. Usually, those who prefer to run are young and very athletic. In college, they got by on athleticism alone. It is possible that Vick may get better as he ages. Perhaps time and Andy Reid have encouraged him to make adjustments. There are examples of running QBs who got better with age. Steve Young didn’t become the 49ers starter until he was 30. John Elway won two Super Bowls when he was older and less athletic. Randall Cunningham had his best years at the end. Running became their backup weapon instead of their primary one. Vick lit defenses up in the first two games of this year. But teams weren’t really prepared for him. In todays NFL, the linebackers are the best athletes on the defensive field. They run like some wideouts. They’ll figure Vick out and then we’ll see if Vick has truly evolved.
A problem though, is Vick’s inherent inaccuracy. Will that improve with age? He’s certainly shown no propensity to suddenly becoming the sniper that the West Coast Offense thrives on. Starting in 2006 and going back, his completion percentages were as follows: 52, 55, 56, 50, 54, 44. No Steve Young he. This was while Atlanta was running a West Coast style offense.
What about Kolb? He’s 26 years old, and if we are to be fair to Vick in stating that 2 games is not a big enough sample to make an assessment, we’d have to say the same about Kolb. But, in the two games he started last year, he was spectacular. He is the only QB to ever throw for 300 yards in his first two games. 390+ in his first game. He was highly regarded all through college. Now he lost his job because he got hurt. I believe there’s far more upside for the Eagles in letting Kolb play. And they should’ve been satisfied that they had the league’s best backup in Vick. Starting Vick for the rest of the year does not advance the future of the team, and it only marginally–if history means anything–increases the team’s ability to win games now. Is Vick better than Donovan McNabb? McNabb’s going to the Hall of Fame. Vick could go back to prison if he so much as walks into a pet store. So it’s a step back from last year.
Oh yeah. There’s that character thing. I’d like to say that people change. And of course they do. But they don’t usually make 180 degree changes in short periods of time. They usually continue to be pains in society’s rear until they’re old. There’s a litany of NFLers and NBAers who simply could not stay out of trouble. I can see Vick slowly breaking down over the course of the season as adversity builds. And it will build. It always does. Has he ever proven to people that he’s the type that they should want to follow? This is not a personal attack on Vick, merely a pragmatic observation. He has more proving to do than 1.75 games this year and 16 passes form last year. Kolb was the future. Highly regarded, positive, patient. You worked him for the spot all off-season and all preseason. Then you cast him to rumored trade winds when he takes a big hit. You stick in a guy who hasn’t won anything big but media adulation prior to his lock-up.
Reid made the wrong choice here. Kolb should have at least been given the chance to fail. Instead, Reid made a potential mess out of things. If Vick falters, the Eagles will have to turn back to a QB who was kicked to the curb.
Thoughts on the current NFL season
It’s coming up on the final regular week in the NFL. To rid us of the tired old cliche’, “things are’t what they used to be” (ie they aren’t as good as they used to be), let me state that I think I’ve seen an outstanding level of footbll played this year. The good teams are very good, but even the teams at the bottom present weekly problems, thus every team is forced to play it’s best or quite likely lose.
As for my 49ers, if they win this week, they’ll end the season at 8-8. Of those 8 losses, only two will have been by more than 7 points–one game against the Eagles, who are probably the best team in the NFL. I’m a fan and biased, no doubt. But, let’s look at the Niners’ schedule this year; it was brutal and maybe the toughest of any team’s.
- Cardinals twice, winning both games. The Super Bowl runner-ups and they only have 5 losses, 2 against the Niners. The Cardinals’ record is better than last years Super Bowl team.
- Minnesota Vikings. Lost on the last play of the game at Minnesota.
- Indianapolis Colts by 4 points at Indy.
- Green Bay Packers–only lost by 6 points.
- The Eagles.
That’s a ridiculous schedule. But I’m hopeful. Alex Smith is a different player in the spread offense and they have 2 first round picks this year.
Anyway. The dark horse team in the New York Jets. They boast the best defense in the league and if rookie QB Sanchez plays well, I think they can play a major spoiler roll. They control their own destiny against the Bengals this week.
The Chargers appear strong all around. Phillip Rivers with his size, arm strength and quick release is reminding some of Dan Marino. Still, they have to go through Indy with Peyton Manning.
The Eagles present the most dynamic team. Their defense is sack happy and their offense is incredibly explosive with DeShean Jackson and underrated rookie first rounder Jeremy Maclin at wideout. I’d like to see their defense keep their opponents from scoring as many points as they do, but why quibble? The team’s won 6 in a row and is second in total points scored.
Then there’s the Vikings. Very talented at the skill positions on offense, I think they’ve been somewhat exposed on defense. If their quick defensive ends get shut down on pass rushing, the Viking cornerbacks are proving inneffective at covering deep routes. I’ve always maintained that a good defense begins with good corner play in modern football. While dangerous, the quick learning coaches around the league studied Minnesota closely and have picked at their weaknesses in the last few weeks.
Dallas is another super-talented team, but very inconsistant. Which team will show up from week to week is anyone’s guess. Same thing with the Saints lately.
All I can say is the NFC is stacked. I look at a team like Green Bay, whose QB Aaron Rodgers has played as well as anyone at that position in the league this year. Check out his numbers–he doesn’t get talked about enough. Then throw in the Packers’ very tough defense, chock full of young stud linebackers like AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews Junior.
Arizona has all the weapons on offense, too, especially with running back Beanie Wells finding his groove.
It’s going to be a very tough playoffs. My predictions are Philadelphia and Indianpolis in the Super Bowl.
49ers sign Michael Crabtree
Always give the Devil his due.
Some argue that Michael Crabtree is the greatest College wide receiver of all time. Blessed with tremendous physical skills that translated to football statistics at Texas Tech, Crabtree is sure to help the Niners at one of their weakest positions.
Crabtree was projected as a top five pick at the draft, but fell to number ten due a hairline fracture in his lower leg which prevented him from working out at the NFL combine. In the end, the 49ers got a steal.
Crabtree amazed college football fans. As a redshirt freshman, he caught 134 passes for 1,962 yards and 22 touchdowns. These are astronomical numbers in run-happy NCAA football. He had big games against top opponents, too.
Of all positions in football, receiver is the easiest to make an immediate impact. Most of what a receiver does is instinctual and is less technique dependant than say cornerback or offensive lineman. Of course it would have helped if Crabtree had been in training camp, but it won’t be long before Crabtree is making a big contribution to the 49ers.
Should Crabtree produce as many think he can, the holdout will be forgotten.
49ers vs the Vikings
I’ll make a few comments on last weeks 49ers/ Vikings game in which Brett Favre made an incredible throw for the win with 2 seconds remaining in the game.
Here’s the play that won it:
First off. The media is now drooling over Brett Favre again. A lot of people are. Remember how they hated him last year, with his mediocre play for the Jets? And with his flip-flop retirement decision?
Another thing. He didn’t play a very good game. I’ll give him that last drive. It was great: 80 yards with no timeouts and a spectacular throw at the end. Ok, but it was at home in a game that they were favored to win. Andrian Peterson didn’t get his 100 yards that everyone thought he would. The Niners played the game without their best player–one of the most explosive backs in football–Frank Gore.
The Niners defense is the best SF D I’ve seen in a long time. Patrick Willis is the best linebacker in the NFL; he runs a dang 4.49 40 yard dash! Coach Mike Singletary says Willis and Ray Lewis are the two best linebackers he’s coached.
All said, the victory goes to the Vikings. But I suggest that people who’re gushing over Favre now, watch the whole game. The Niners lost an away game against a favored team in the waning seconds. All you haters can forget about the Fan Francisco teams of the last ten years. This one’s for real.
Recent Comments