North and South Korea teeter at the edge of war.

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This morning, North Korea launched an artillery strike against a South Korean Island, killing several inhabitants and destroying homes. I’ll remind people that a war between these two countries will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a schoolyard tussle.

After the discovery earlier this year that a South Korean warship was sunk by a North Korean torpedo, it may be only a matter of time before the South must act in order to protect its viability as a state. As I’m writing this, it’s being reported that the South Korean president states that the South will unleash “enormous retaliation” if attacked again. This news comes on the heels of reports of North Korean attempts to weaponize uranium. I will continue monitoring.

Predictive Analysis: The North will again wait several months before attacking, allowing for a cool-off period and decreased media attention.

4 thoughts on “North and South Korea teeter at the edge of war.

    Royce said:
    November 23, 2010 at 8:38 pm

    I am reminded of two quotes from Tallyrand.
    First “The problem with an army is that it eats” and the second “You can do anything with bayonets except sit on them.” These seem to perfectly describe the situation with North Korea. Their economy is almost nonexistent and they have a huge military that must be fed and like all dictatorships distracted or kept in line. It strikes me that their bellicosity falls into the category of what to do with a huge army that eats? At this point I think it unlikely they will actually push this to an active military attack on the South because the Chinese don’t want that. It would force America’s hand to support the South just as it would force the Chinese to defend their client the North. No one would win in this scenario and it would be too disruptive to the world economy. The possible exception would be that if the Chinese felt it was time to bring the US to heel they might just sit back and watch. The current President has no experience at anything especially diplomacy and his recent forays into China and India have tended to demonstrate that he has little standing internationally. But I still think an all out attack is unlikely.

    magus71 responded:
    November 24, 2010 at 8:15 am

    Yes, an all out attack is unlikely. The Chinese probably don’t want a war, because it would push hundreds of thousands of refugees from Korea into China. Plus, despite China’s issues with the West, it is a fully functioning member of the international economic system and they would be hurt along with everyone else.

    A war with Korea would not be like the two wars wev’re recently fought. The Korean Peninsula provides a funnel for huge amounts of US firepower–no scurrying away into vast mountain ranges. And China is unlikely to allow cross-border action from its territory.

    In other words, while the South would suffer significant casualties, the North would be annihilated in a war that was very short and very bloody.

    Amos Volante said:
    November 25, 2010 at 2:56 am

    Could Our Great Leader be out of cognac?

    Sorry, I couldn’t resist…

    Amos Volante said:
    November 25, 2010 at 2:57 am

    Seriously though:

    National Geographic’s N. Korea 50 minute documentary is a must-see. It is simply amazing how fanatically loyal the North Koreans are, even to concepts that can only lead to their own starvation & demise.

    It’s shocking, but it’s a must see!

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