Hezbollah sleeper cells and imminent war in the Middle East

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The Israeli Minister of Defense recently stated that Israel is prepared for 30 days of war with Iran. In fact, a shadow war, but a very real war never the less, has been ongoing between the two countries for months, with real people being killed by very real government-backed means.

Within the last year, at least 3 Iranian scientists who were working on Iran’s nuclear power program were assassinated.  Bombs exploded in their cars, killing them.  And there was the massively powerful cyberweapon, known as STUXNET, deployed against Iranian nuclear research facilities.  In what appears to be reprisals, terrorists targeted Israelis around the world in places like India, Georgia, and most recently in Bulgaria.  In this case, a suicide bomber walked onto a bus full of Israeli tourists and parked near an airport terminal , then detonated, killing 5 Israelis.  The bombing occurred in a popular Israeli vacation resort near the Black Sea.   Bulgarian domestic security released a video which shows the suspected suicide bomber walking inside the airport.  He is dressed in very casual western style clothing and has a light complexion.  I posted a video of the suspected bomber, below.

As a former law enforcement officer and current intelligence analyst I find the video and the overall bombing very disturbing for several reasons.  First, the bomber’s body language is staggeringly deceptive, offering no clues as to his true intent.  The man obviously received professional training, most probably from Iranian Quds Force and/or Hezbollah.  The man’s gait, posture and clothing are carefully crafted so as to defeat most attempts at profiling.  Secondly, the complexity of this operation was quite extensive.  The bomber had to penetrate an Eastern European country’s domestic security, most likely constructing the bomb there.  The bomber also looks very Western in complexion and mannerism.  Thirdly, a group of Israeli tourists had to be targeted and stalked.  This is different from an operation in which a high profile individual is targeted for assassination.  In that case it is quite simple to know where the high profile person will be, since he or she will be preceded by media reports, has a well known face, and may have an attached security detail.  This operation required extensive surveillance and testing of the existing security systems.  Also, the bomber possessed a fake Michigan driver’s license. 

Fake Michigan driver’s license found at bomb scene
Sketch of suspected suicide bomber in Bulgaria

All of this raises the question as to what Hezbollah has in store for Israel and America should Israel preemptively strike.  Readers should have no doubt that Hezbollah, sponsored by Iran, has placed sleeper cells around the world that are ready to “wake up” should they be called to action.  Though some of them already struck in response to the deaths of Iranian scientists and the STUXNET cyberweapon, it is logical to assume that Iran is holding back a considerable number of suicide bombers and saboteurs so as to control the political aspects of a future war.  It is an established fact that Hezbollah operates an organised crime ring in America, with million of dollars having been funneled to groups in Lebanon.[1]  Iran is the world’s foremost practitioner of 4th Generation Warfare.  Anyone who believes that this type of warfare is ineffective should consider the fact that Iran remained the number one state supporter of terrorism for decades without, until recently, sanctions leveled against it.  Iran has continued on the path of nuclear weapons without a single shot fired against it by the United States.  Iran has held hostage British sailors while parading them on camera against international law.  The Iranian government plotted the assassination of the Saudi Ambassador to the US, without any repercussions, not even a strongly worded letter.  Iran provided fighters, bomb makers and Explosively Formed Projectiles  (EFPs) capable of slicing through the toughest of American armor, to insurgents in the Iraq war.  The American government willfully took no action against Iran despite knowing its government was killing American Soldiers. In some cases, American intelligence networks were told to avoid collecting information that proved Iranian complicity in American deaths.[2]  Iran also continues to sow chaos and discord in Iraq, forcing Iraqi prime minister Maliki to form an alliance with the Iranian regime.

There is simply no other way to interpret the lack of assertive action against Iran by the United States other than that the US government  is afraid of Iran.  The fact that the most powerful nation in history is scared of a country like Iran shows the effectiveness of 4G Warfare.  Iran knows it cannot win in a stand up fight against America.  It doesn’t need to, because the American government has little real idea of how to deal with 4th Generation fighters.  American politicians are far more concerned with polls and elections than the lives of American servicemen, otherwise the Iranians would have been taken care of years ago.  Terrorism targets public opinion and every terrorist loves a polling booth.  The proliferation of useful idiots who think that America can negotiate its way out of every bad situation has done nothing but empower Iran’s 4G warriors.

The Middle East is teetering on the edge of war.  The new Egyptian government openly states it is considering violating its peace treaty with Israel, Lebanon and Syria are in chaos, and Iran rushes toward obtaining the ultimate weapon while promising the destruction of Israel.  But perhaps most troubling is the lack of commitment from America as to which side it is on.  Our collapsing culture and post-modern morals  blind our government at a time when moral clarity is imperative

[1] Emerson, Steven, Jihad Incorporated”, pages 219-227, Prometheus Books, 2006

[2] O’hern, Steven, K. “The Intelligence Wars”, Chapter 4: Iran’s Shadow Falls Over Iraq, Prometheus Books, 2008

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One thought on “Hezbollah sleeper cells and imminent war in the Middle East

    Royce said:
    August 18, 2012 at 6:13 pm

    This posting should receive a wider audience that it likely will. Iran is a huge threat to world peace and the fact that no one has taken any action — outside of Israel — is likely to be cited in future histories as misguided policies that led to war — much like those misguided policies and politicians led to WW II. The connections between Iran and terror have been known for years — even in the face of outright attacks, but there are too many people in the world who turn away for various reasons. The Russians sit on the doorstep of Iran but are fighting their own Muslim led (and Iranian backed do doubt) insurgents. The Europeans remain mired in their own financial quagmire and are both unwilling and incapable of any sort of military action primarily because they don’t see a threat, see the problem as an Israeli problem, and expect NATO (i.e. America) to protect them. Africa is lost already and no one even cares. South America has never played a role on the world stage so the only remaining area is Asia. The Turks are concerned about Iran but as a Muslim country taking action against Iran would destablize their government and that leaves China. Contrary to popular opinion China is not a military powerhouse — at least not yet. It has a huge standing Army which is being used mostly to maintain order in the frontier provinces and the interior. The interior is a huge problem that the government is struggling with financially as well as politically. The Army is composed of peasants with little education who might not be up to dealing with the sophisticated weaponry of a modern war. Essentially then the Iranian problem becomes an American and Israeli problem with little to no assistance anticipated from anyone. Lastly of course we have American leadership which has been totally lacking under the current pro-Muslim administration.

    The middle east remains a powder keg with a few sparks of light — very dim ones but there nevertheless. Libya may emerge as a secular government. Maybe not pro-west but certainly not Islamofascist. The new Egyptian government holds power with only a slight edge and is trying to deal with anarchy in Sinai and an unhappy military internally. They may be forced to act more secularly and not offer overt support to Iran. And finally there is Syria. There is no doubt but that Syria has been an Iranian client state for decades and the current war is a test of their power. Who the rebels are seems unclear — even to the rebels but without doubt Al Qaeda is there and perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood as well. Regardless of who emerges as victors it is unlikely they will be pro-western and the best that can be hoped for is that they are secular and not another Islamofacist state.

    Long response but you got my stomach in an uproar. Hopefully your intelligence reports are reaching the right ears even though the Administration may not want to hear.

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